Editor's Note: Contrary to popular belief, nasty observations by idiots, and Nate Silver's own words, Nate Silver is way-hetero and constantly on the prowl for sexy ladies. Don't question this methodology if you don't understand it.

Greetings, Stephanie.

So, we should begin our date by discussing the possible outcomes of this date itself. I have spent three weeks in the field conducting a survey on the quality of past dating events and relationships. This survey had a sample size of nine women. Two of these women, Mandy H. and Sara N., have survey information weighted lower than the others due to cheating, and one of the women, Vanessa P., I have weighted favorably due to her track record of candor and her affinity for baseball statistics.

So, based on the results of these surveys, and data gathered from other surveys of my abilities as a romancer and lover, as well as similarities in assigned characteristics between you and my past girlfriends, I have been able to assemble a series of predictions. Keep in mind these are statistical predictions only and are subject to a confidence interval (CI hereafter) based on the sample sizes relevant to each prediction.

We will have dinner at a Mexican restaurant. 87.9%

I will pronounce everything in perfect español when ordering, impressing everyone. 99.2%

I will not make eye contact for more than two seconds. 86.9%

I will be ordering a fajita with no hot sauce. 84.3%

We will both have margaritas. 67.5%

You will be enthusiastic when I describe building a Lego Star Destroyer. 73.3%

You will have a second margarita. 58.9%

I will stop during the meal to take an important phone call from a famous person. 94.7%

That person will be Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium. 99.3%

I also know Paul Krugman. 99.7%

I will read a tweet aloud from David Brooks in a sarcastic tone and you will laugh and touch my arm below my elbow. 88.4%

You will drive us to my apartment since I was dropped off by a friend and met you at the restaurant. 90.3%

I will show you my Lego Star Destroyer and you will take off your shirt. 94.1%

You will experience total head-to-toe ecstasy from our full-body kissing session. 64.5%

Your body will experience three or more orgasms so powerful you may be rendered temporarily handicapped by pleasure. 78.4%

You can sleep in my bed while I run the poll sims for the day. 94.1%

You will drive me to my fantasy football meeting in the morning. 83.3%

At some point over the next three years we will go rock climbing like you said you enjoy. 77.1%

After predicting hundreds of elections across the country including multiple presidential elections I will be named as the USA's ultimate stat master. 86.9%

We will get married. 75.5%

It will be too late by then for you to have children and I didn't want children anyway. 98.2%

We will adopt a Chinese baby, name him Jié, and slowly drift apart romantically as a result. 93.2%

You will cheat on me with my cousin's friend Terry at Jié's bar mitzvah. 84.1%

We will divorce and you will get custody of Jié and the house in the Hamptons, I will get the apartment. 73.2%

You will re-marry an aging TV actor, I will burn through a series of embarrassing relationships culminating in a surprise pregnancy of a Latina polymath flautist/statistics expert. We will name our child Jerzy after statistician Jerzy Neyman. 80.0%

I will die in a tragic sky skipper accident, a vehicle that exists in 2047 and resembles a hovercraft, but uses vectored thrust rather than a ground-effect engine. 91.2%


So, unfortunately, the CI goes very wide when attempting to project data beyond my eventual death, so I prefer to end the projection there. As you can see, Stephanie, I have cause to both celebrate and fear our nascent relationship.

Might I suggest a compromise in which heartache and untimely death are avoided and we skip directly to intercourse at my New York Times office. You will find it almost as pleasurable (91.8%) and I will purchase for you whatever you desire to eat (Bugles 83.9%) and drink (Arizona Iced Tea) from the snack vendors situated in the employee lounge.

So, what do you say? You can sleep on the couch in my office afterwards and then drive me to my fantasy football league in the morning.

– Nate Silver (@sexyfacts4u)

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